Every day we are being inundated with so-called experts who are giving us their latest economic forecasts. And many will listen and believe and follow their advice. To quote Dr. Phil "How's that working for ya?"
The reality is that what the latest global financial mess is pointing out is that these same "Oracles of Delphi", are the ones that not too long ago were stating that our economy was solid, gas prices were going to go up to $2 per liter, and on and on. Yet it is obvious that this is not what has happened and now just like a chameleon, they have changed their colors and if they are not trying to hide in shame are out touting their latest predictions.
This is just like the weather person -- who has a 50/50 chance of being right with a prediction. "It will rain tomorrow," they may say with utter certainty. The next day, when the sun is shining, they blame it on an unexpected shift in the thermal patterns -- not their fault. And we accept that, because, well, we have come to consider their inaccuracies acceptable.
Or what about any of the so-called psychics, who will predict that a celebrity will get married within the next year. Again, they have a chance of getting it right. If they don't, you never hear anything regarding their error, but of course if it is correct, the psychic will tout it as evidence of their magnificent sixth sense.
Quite honestly, after the recent market affliction, we should put economists and financial pundits in the same category as weather persons and psychics. If they are correct, they shine a spotlight on themselves and say "look at how great I am!" The reality is that they are often wrong and as demonstrated recently can be horribly wrong.
But then again, it may rain tomorrow....or not!
1 comment:
"This is just like the weather person -- who has a 50/50 chance of being right with a prediction."
I beg to differ.
The weather forecasts are always 100 percent accurate.
For instance, if I say there's a 10 percent chance of rain tomorrow and it rains, I'm right, it rained.
If it doesn't rain, , what the hell, I said there was only a 10 percent chance. What's the big deal? What exactly did you expect?
In my not-humble-at-all opinion, financial prognosticators are far less reliable than weather forecasters. As a rule, weather forecasters generally have much less to gain financially from their prognostications.
:-)
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