Wednesday, May 02, 2007

Ethanol, Corn Shortage and a Healthier Diet



This corn cob mascot better start taking some lessons in self defense pretty soon, otherwise the makers of ethanol will be tracking him down and turning him into clean fuel.

Yes, our direction to a cleaner environment, which we all agree is a good thing, has corn cobs everywhere running for cover, knowing that soon there will be a struggle of the titans -- the ethanol producers and those who bring us tasty treats!

There are shudders running up and down the corridors of supply chain personnel in the food industry -- where are we going to get the corn when the acceptance of ethanol explodes?

Recent statistics have the US converting over 50 million tons of corn to ethanol in 2008. By 2012 ethanol availability has to double (as a result of a US federal requirement) to 7.5 Billion.Analysts predict increasing competition between the fuel industry, and supermarkets.

So corn prices are going up and moreover the supply for food products will keep on dwindling. Let's face it, there is no federal requirement to increase the amount of corn chips that are produced.

This issue has started to percolate and will reach the boiling point sometime soon. Have you ever looked at the index of ingredients on food packages. Almost everything has some corn product in it -- simple thing like cornstarch, corn oil, condiments, snack foods (and my favorite corn relish)-- well the list goes on and on.

So the supply chain has to become creative in its approach to this issue. Do the food producers start buying up fields of corn, or invest in locations overseas to do this? Are the substitutes for corn (can you imagine non-corn corn chips?) a viable alternative -- do they pass the consumer taste test?
But there is a further issue also to be dealt with -- a significant amount of corn exports go to developing nations. Just as the anti-hunger movement has gone into high gear, another issue challenges the desire to feed the less fortunate.

It is a true dilemma and one that was probably not anticipated by the policy creators, as they usually have one focus only and certainly don't consult with supply chain experts who would have identified the issues and tried to determine reasonable alternatives before making broad spectrum changes.

Perhaps the food industry reliant on corn should mandate a corn growing in every backyard ---"You want to work for us -- well then are you willing to give up your lawn for the greater corn good?"

I don't know about you, but I'm thinking of turning my backyard into a mini-corn field -- and then selling to the highest bidder!

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